Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Some Detroit Tigers just weren't themselves in one-game playoff against Minnesota Twins

Some early thoughts on the Detroit Tigers' extra-inning loss tonight:
  • Some key Tigers just didn't seem to be themselves.

Placido Polanco struck out twice, including once with a key run on third base. He's usually the team's best hitter in that type of situation. He also couldn't field a possible double-play ball that ended up being one of many big RBI hits for the Minnesota Twins in extra innings.

Curtis Granderson getting doubled off first base on a line drive was uncharacteristic for such a smart baserunner. Reminded me of Darrell Evans getting tagged out at third base during the 1987 American League Championships, also against the Twins.

I'm not entirely sure whether Ryan Raburn lost that fly ball in the roof and the aforementioned grounder that got by Polanco was a turf hit but not a high-hopper, but that's pretty close.

  • A game like this is bound to create lots of opportunities for second-guessing the manager.

I question how long Leyland stuck with Zach Miner, who's at best the team's fourth-best relief pitcher. I thought he should have gone to Brandon Lyon sooner rather than bringing him in after Miner had already blown the lead. Also, I would have pinch hit Alex Avila for Gerald Laird with the bases loaded in the 12th.

Some are complaining about Leyland sticking with Feranando Rodney for so long, but I don't have a problem with it given the alternatives: Eddie Bonine and Nate Robertson. Rodney really pitched fairly well. He was victimized by the Raburn misplay and some seeing-eye hits. The game-winner was a well-placed, weak ground ball.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

One-game playoff was inevitable with Jim Leyland's decisions in final week of Detroit Tigers' season

Some thoughts on more than a week of playoff-atmosphere baseball:

Based on some of those recent performances, I can see the Tigers taking a lead into the late innings only to see the game lost in a Twins rally consisting of bloopers, high-hoppers off the turf and maybe a ball lost in the roof for good measure. Remember this year's Don Kelly fiasco? Or the game in 2006 in which Jeremy Bonderman had no-hit stuff and imploded in the late innings to lose the game?

  • Justin Verlander was great on Sunday, but with the good came a repeat of a troubling pattern. The Tiger ace looked untouchable, but suddenly fell victim to a big inning and had to be removed.

As good as he is, you never quite know with Verlander. This was at least the fourth time this year that he has had no-hit stuff, but suffered through a three-, four- or five-run inning. It seems like a big inning can come when you least expect it when Verlander is on the mound.

  • Ryan Raburn has been the Tigers' unsung hero this year. Where would they be without him? Today's two homers in a must-win game is his latest clutch performance. Remember his walk-off home run earlier in the year?

Raburn has been just what the Tigers' struggling offense has needed. Before I question Jim Leyland in my next bullet point, I'll praise him for doing a great job of utilizing Raburn. Early on, Raburn was struggling to hit .100. Leyland stuck with him, and was rewarded with a powerful right-handed bat. Raburn has been especially valuable with Curtis Granderson's struggles against left-handed pitching and the lack of power from other corner outfielders such as Magglio Ordonez, Clete Thomas and Josh Anderson.

  • If the Tigers don't win on Tuesday, Leyland will deservedly get much of the blame. The lack of urgency he's shown in his decision making this week has been striking, especially when compared to the moves of Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire.

The decision to start Alfredo Figaro in Saturday's crucial game was a head-scratcher. Figaro is on the Tiger roster as an extra September call up, which means he's not even one of the team's best 11 or 12 pitchers. Predictably, he was yanked early and suffered the loss.

Monday's rain out set up a difficult situation for the manager.

His choices: 1) Pitch Verlander on only three days' rest and then start Rick Porcello on his normal four days' rest in Game No. 162. 2) Pitch someone like Figaro, Zach Miner or Armando Galarraga. 3) Do something creative, like start reliever Ryan Perry and have him go a couple of innings, then replace him with Miner for three innings, Bobby Seay for a couple of batters, Brandon Lyon for an inning or two and Fernando Rodney for an inning or so.

Leyland chose No. 1, probably the worst of the three options.

Pitching your ace on three days' rest isn't the no-brainer that some might think. In recent history, pitchers making postseason starts on three days' rest have posted underwhelming numbers. But in those situations, a manager is usually choosing between starting his ace or starting his No. 4 starter. Leyland was choosing between his ace or his No. 6 or No. 7 starter.

Meanwhile, Gardenhire, who should be the American League Manager of the Year, started Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano both on three days' rest rather than pitching rookies. Of course, the Twins won both games.

We've seen this type of cautious managing from Leyland in the past. Earlier this week, he rested Placido Polanco against the Twins.

In 2006, Leyland started resting his players when the Tigers clinched a playoff spot, allowing the Twins to catch the Tigers in the last week. Then he suddenly veered in a different direction on the last day of the season, using seemingly the entire pitching staff in a desperate-but-failed attempt to win the division.

And in the World Series that year, Leyland started Verlander in Game 1 instead of Kenny Rogers, who had an ERA of 0.00 and had plenty of time off because the Tigers had a week in between their pennant-clinching victory and the start of the series.

The Tigers finished the second-half only one game above .500. During Leyland's tenure, second-half collapses have been the norm, occurring in 2006 and again in 2007 and 2009.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Minnesota Twins beat ace; Detroit Tigers lose to journeyman

The Minnesota Twins needed to score five runs in a game started by likely Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. They did.

The Detroit Tigers could barely even score one run in a game started by Freddy Garcia, who has struggled to find a major league job after arm problems.

That sums up the day.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Edwin Jackson's performance tonight could provide glimpse of what to expect from Tigers in playoffs

Tonight's game against the Chicago White Sox is big for the Detroit Tigers in more than one way.

Of course, it could help determine whether the Tigers win the American League Central.

But it also could be a harbinger of what to expect if the Tigers do make the playoffs. (As of today, Baseball Prospectus says the Tigers have a 92 percent chance of making the postseason.)

It's generally acknowledged that the Tigers (if they make it into the playoffs) won't be one of the strongest teams in the postseason.

But many analysts have offered a theory that provides hope to Tiger fans: If the Tigers get in, they could be tough to beat because power pitching is a key in the postseason and the Tigers have power pitching. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello could shut down any opposing offense -- or so the theory goes.

That's very true when in comes to Verlander and it's a bit of a reach when it comes to the 20-year-old Porcello, although the youngster should match up OK with other No. 3 starters.

As far as Jackson goes, it depends on which Edwin Jackson shows up for the postseason. Is it the first-half Edwin Jackson, who had the second-best ERA in the league earlier in the season? Or is it the Edwin Jackson who has frequently struggled in recent weeks?

Jackson pitches tonight. And he pitches against Jake Peavy of the Chicago White Sox. Peavy, a former Cy Young winner, is exactly the type of pitcher the Tigers can expect to face in the playoffs.

If Jackson can't outduel Peavy tonight, what will it say about his chances of winning postseason games against other stud pitchers who can hold the Tigers' mediocre offense in check?

We should have a better idea after tonight whether the Tigers have the starting pitching to make a run for the World Series.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Batting third in the biggest Detroit Tigers' game of the year: Clete Thomas?

In many ways, Jim Leyland is a very good manager.

But his handling of the most important spot in the Detroit Tigers' batting order this year has been puzzling, to say the least.

Most people in baseball consider the No. 3 hitter to be the best hitter on the team. If that's the case, many days Jim Leyland thinks Detroit's best hitter is Clete Thomas.

Thomas has often batted third since it became clear that Magglio Ordonez, the No. 3 hitter at the beginning of the season, isn't the player he once was.

Going into today's doubleheader, Thomas had a .243 batting average. But that doesn't even begin to explain what a poor choice he is as the No. 3 hitter.

In his best minor-league season, Thomas hit .280 with 8 homers in AA ball.

Last year he hit .247 in nearly 300 at bats in AAA.

He doesn't hit for average. He doesn't hit for power. He strikes out a lot.

Thomas is a borderline major league player. He was never a highly regarded prospect. Batting him third for a team fighting to make the playoffs is a strategy that defies any reasonable explanation.

I've heard broadcasters say that Leyland likes to bat Thomas third because he adds some speed to the top of the order. He does, but at what expense?

At one point this season, Thomas was demoted to the minor leagues. He went from the No. 3 hitter in Detroit to the minor leagues.

Why isn't Miguel Cabrera batting third? He's by far the best offensive player on the team. Wouldn't it behoove the Tigers to have him batting in the first inning every game? Don't you want to get Cabrera as many plate appearances as you can, and have him batting behind the best hitters on the team rather than Clete Thomas.

The only reason I can see for not batting Cabrera third is that he struggled during a brief cameo in that role earlier this season. So does that mean he's not capable of batting third? Probably not. It could have easily been random luck that Cabrera happened to slump when he was moved to a new spot in the batting order.

Even if you were to conclude that Cabrera should bat fourth, why not bat Carlos Guillen third? He's an accomplished major league hitter. So is Aubrey Huff. His batting average isn't good this year, but neither is Clete Thomas'.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

RIP, Tiger Stadium

Tiger Stadium, a place that gives me many fond memories, soon will be no more.

I felt a little wistful looking at this Detroit Free Press slide show, but the stadium had to go.

It would have been nice to see it redeveloped, but in today's economy, that wasn't going to happen.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Lost in roof complaints are questions about defense in Detroit Tigers outfield

Blame today's loss on the Metrodome roof if it makes you feel better.

I'm still not sure why anyone would paint a stadium's roof the same color as the baseball.

But the Detroit Tigers didn't lose today's game because of the quirks of the stadium that has left many fielders throwing their arms up to signal they've lost the ball.

They lost it because they have only two outfielders who can be trusted to play defense in the late innings of a close game.

Don Kelly, who lost one ball and misplayed another in the decisive eighth inning, was a defensive replacement for Carlos Guillen.

Kelly, a AAA-player who is on the team only because of September roster expansion, shouldn't have been put in the position to help lose the game. There are no indoor stadiums with white roofs in the minor leagues, where the 29-year-old Kelly has played most of his career.

Maybe Jim Leyland made a mistake by entrusting Kelly with late-inning defense in a crucial game.

But what other choices do the Tigers have? Clete Thomas? He had to enter the game in right field as a defensive replacement for Magglio Ordonez. Ryan Raburn? He's suffered his own misadventures this season as a defensive replacement.

With Guillen, Ordonez and Marcus Thames getting the bulk of the playing time at the corner outfield positions, defensive range is a big problem. Guillen isn't really an outfielder and he's aging and slow. Ordonez is aging and slow. Thames never really was very good on defense.

That left Leyland trying to figure out how to replace two poor outfielders in the late innings with a bench that had only one quality major-league outfielder.

It wouldn't be such a big problem if Guillen and Ordonez were still 100-RBI threats. But now that they're both hitting like middle-infielders, their defense is even more troubling.

And it could cost the Tigers, whose lead over the Minnesota Twins dropped to two games, a spot in the playoffs.