One-game playoff was inevitable with Jim Leyland's decisions in final week of Detroit Tigers' season

Some thoughts on more than a week of playoff-atmosphere baseball:

• It's hard to be positive about the Detroit Tigers' one-game playoff against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Detroit's recent history in the Metrodome is downright frightening.

Based on some of those recent performances, I can see the Tigers taking a lead into the late innings only to see the game lost in a Twins rally consisting of bloopers, high-hoppers off the turf and maybe a ball lost in the roof for good measure. Remember this year's Don Kelly fiasco? Or the game in 2006 in which Jeremy Bonderman had no-hit stuff and imploded in the late innings to lose the game?

• Justin Verlander was great on Sunday, but with the good came a repeat of a troubling pattern. The Tiger ace looked untouchable, but suddenly fell victim to a big inning and had to be removed.

As good as he is, you never quite know with Verlander. This was at least the fourth time this year that he has had no-hit stuff, but suffered through a three-, four- or five-run inning. It seems like a big inning can come when you least expect it when Verlander is on the mound.

• Ryan Raburn has been the Tigers' unsung hero this year. Where would they be without him? Today's two homers in a must-win game is his latest clutch performance. Remember his walk-off home run earlier in the year?

Raburn has been just what the Tigers' struggling offense has needed. Before I question Jim Leyland in my next bullet point, I'll praise him for doing a great job of utilizing Raburn. Early on, Raburn was struggling to hit .100. Leyland stuck with him, and was rewarded with a powerful right-handed bat. Raburn has been especially valuable with Curtis Granderson's struggles against left-handed pitching and the lack of power from other corner outfielders such as Magglio Ordonez, Clete Thomas and Josh Anderson.

• If the Tigers don't win on Tuesday, Leyland will deservedly get much of the blame. The lack of urgency he's shown in his decision making this week has been striking, especially when compared to the moves of Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire.

The decision to start Alfredo Figaro in Saturday's crucial game was a head-scratcher. Figaro is on the Tiger roster as an extra September call up, which means he's not even one of the team's best 11 or 12 pitchers. Predictably, he was yanked early and suffered the loss.

Monday's rain out set up a difficult situation for the manager.

His choices: 1) Pitch Verlander on only three days' rest and then start Rick Porcello on his normal four days' rest in Game No. 162. 2) Pitch someone like Figaro, Zach Miner or Armando Galarraga. 3) Do something creative, like start reliever Ryan Perry and have him go a couple of innings, then replace him with Miner for three innings, Bobby Seay for a couple of batters, Brandon Lyon for an inning or two and Fernando Rodney for an inning or so.

Leyland chose No. 1, probably the worst of the three options.

Pitching your ace on three days' rest isn't the no-brainer that some might think. In recent history, pitchers making postseason starts on three days' rest have posted underwhelming numbers. But in those situations, a manager is usually choosing between starting his ace or starting his No. 4 starter. Leyland was choosing between his ace or his No. 6 or No. 7 starter.

Meanwhile, Gardenhire, who should be the American League Manager of the Year, started Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano both on three days' rest rather than pitching rookies. Of course, the Twins won both games.

We've seen this type of cautious managing from Leyland in the past. Earlier this week, he rested Placido Polanco against the Twins.

In 2006, Leyland started resting his players when the Tigers clinched a playoff spot, allowing the Twins to catch the Tigers in the last week. Then he suddenly veered in a different direction on the last day of the season, using seemingly the entire pitching staff in a desperate-but-failed attempt to win the division.

And in the World Series that year, Leyland started Verlander in Game 1 instead of Kenny Rogers, who had an ERA of 0.00 and had plenty of time off because the Tigers had a week in between their pennant-clinching victory and the start of the series.

The Tigers finished the second-half only one game above .500. During Leyland's tenure, second-half collapses have been the norm, occurring in 2006 and again in 2007 and 2009.

Edwin Jackson's performance tonight could provide glimpse of what to expect from Tigers in playoffs

Tonight's game against the Chicago White Sox is big for the Detroit Tigers in more than one way.

Of course, it could help determine whether the Tigers win the American League Central.

But it also could be a harbinger of what to expect if the Tigers do make the playoffs. (As of today, Baseball Prospectus says the Tigers have a 92 percent chance of making the postseason.)

It's generally acknowledged that the Tigers (if they make it into the playoffs) won't be one of the strongest teams in the postseason.

But many analysts have offered a theory that provides hope to Tiger fans: If the Tigers get in, they could be tough to beat because power pitching is a key in the postseason and the Tigers have power pitching. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello could shut down any opposing offense -- or so the theory goes.

That's very true when in comes to Verlander and it's a bit of a reach when it comes to the 20-year-old Porcello, although the youngster should match up OK with other No. 3 starters.

As far as Jackson goes, it depends on which Edwin Jackson shows up for the postseason. Is it the first-half Edwin Jackson, who had the second-best ERA in the league earlier in the season? Or is it the Edwin Jackson who has frequently struggled in recent weeks?

Jackson pitches tonight. And he pitches against Jake Peavy of the Chicago White Sox. Peavy, a former Cy Young winner, is exactly the type of pitcher the Tigers can expect to face in the playoffs.

If Jackson can't outduel Peavy tonight, what will it say about his chances of winning postseason games against other stud pitchers who can hold the Tigers' mediocre offense in check?

We should have a better idea after tonight whether the Tigers have the starting pitching to make a run for the World Series.

Kansas City Royal Zack Greinke should be ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander in Cy Young race

Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander is one of six American League pitchers who still have a legitimate shot at the Cy Young Award with less than a month left in the season.

I would pick Kansas City's Zack Greinke and Seattle's Felix Hernandez ahead of Verlander based on their performances so far.

It's anyone's guess who would actually win the award if the vote was today. Baseball writers who pick the Cy Young winners are typically enamored with victories. New York's CC Sabathia leads the league in victories with 16, but lags behind Greinke, Hernandez and Verlander in other categories.

Greinke's league-best 2.32 ERA and league-leading 6 complete games and 3 shutouts makes him the AL's best pitcher in my eyes. He also trails only Verlander in strikeouts. Greinke also will be helped by a hot start that resulted in a Sports Illustrated cover story that declared him baseball's best pitcher.

Greinke may have only 13 wins, good for just sixth in the league, but he pitches for a team with a poor offense. Cy Young voters too often hold that against pitchers.

While Sabathia has three more wins than Greinke, his ERA is more than a run higher. And Sabathia pitches for the best team in the league, so he doesn't have to shut down his opponents as Greinke does to get victories.

Verlander's main problem is a relatively high ERA of 3.38, also more than a run higher than Greinke's.

Hernandez is second in ERA and tied for third in wins.

Toronto's Roy Halladay and Boston's Josh Beckett also have an outside shot at the award for the league's best pitcher.

Detroit Tigers fans shouldn't be surprised by Jarrod Washburn's struggles

When the Detroit Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn, some said the deal gave the Tigers three of the best starting pitchers in the American League.

After all, they reasoned, Washburn was one of the league leaders in ERA, along with Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander.

They should have known better.

And I'm not just saying that because Washburn was pounded in today's Tigers loss.

A look at the numbers at the time of the trade showed that Washburn was unlikely to maintain his outstanding pitching.

Washburn had an ERA of 2.64 when the Tigers acquired him. He was a former 18-game winner, the theory went, and had regained his magic after ERAs of 4.69, 4.32 and 4.67 the previous three years.

Makes sense, right?

Until you look at the numbers.

First of all, Washburn was just shy of his 35th birthday. Not many pitchers suddenly find magic in their mid-30s.

Most importantly, compare some of Washburn's underlying numbers before the trade to those from his recent seasons. Other than his ERA and hits allowed, the other numbers were not much better than in recent years.

His strikeout rate was 5.3 per nine innings, a low rate that wasn't much different than his rate of 5.1 the year before.

His walk rate per nine innings was down from 2.9 to 2.2, a nice improvement, but not the type of gain that's likely to cut your ERA by two runs absent any other significant changes.

He had given up 1.1 home runs per nine innings, identical to his rate in 2008.

So, even though batters were putting roughly the same number of balls in play and hitting the same number of home runs, Washburn's hits allowed and ERA were way down.

There was really nothing to explain that improvement. He didn't suddenly develop pinpoint control or come up with a strikeout pitch. Good luck might be an overly simplistic way of explaining Washburn's low ERA. A hot streak that was bound to end might be a better characterization.

If you want to find a pitcher who legitimately improved, take a look at teammates Jackson and Verlander.

Jackson, 25, is still young enough to be on the rise. And in addition to a significant drop in ERA, he's seen his strikeout rate jump from 5.3 to 6.9, his walk rate drop from 3.8 to 3.0 and his strikeouts/walk rate improve dramatically from 1.4 to 2.3.

Verlander, 26, has decreased his walk rate from 3.9 to 2.5 and improved his strikeout rate from 7.3 to 10.2.

Those are real improvements.

Washburn's gains were a mirage.

I'm not saying the Tigers shouldn't have made the trade. In Luke French, they gave up relatively little.

I am saying the expectations were too high.