When the Detroit Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn, some said the deal gave the Tigers three of the best starting pitchers in the American League.
After all, they reasoned, Washburn was one of the league leaders in ERA, along with Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander.
They should have known better.
And I'm not just saying that because Washburn was pounded in today's Tigers loss.
A look at the numbers at the time of the trade showed that Washburn was unlikely to maintain his outstanding pitching.
Washburn had an ERA of 2.64 when the Tigers acquired him. He was a former 18-game winner, the theory went, and had regained his magic after ERAs of 4.69, 4.32 and 4.67 the previous three years.
Makes sense, right?
Until you look at the numbers.
First of all, Washburn was just shy of his 35th birthday. Not many pitchers suddenly find magic in their mid-30s.
After all, they reasoned, Washburn was one of the league leaders in ERA, along with Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander.
They should have known better.
And I'm not just saying that because Washburn was pounded in today's Tigers loss.
A look at the numbers at the time of the trade showed that Washburn was unlikely to maintain his outstanding pitching.
Washburn had an ERA of 2.64 when the Tigers acquired him. He was a former 18-game winner, the theory went, and had regained his magic after ERAs of 4.69, 4.32 and 4.67 the previous three years.
Makes sense, right?
Until you look at the numbers.
First of all, Washburn was just shy of his 35th birthday. Not many pitchers suddenly find magic in their mid-30s.
Most importantly, compare some of Washburn's underlying numbers before the trade to those from his recent seasons. Other than his ERA and hits allowed, the other numbers were not much better than in recent years.
His strikeout rate was 5.3 per nine innings, a low rate that wasn't much different than his rate of 5.1 the year before.
His walk rate per nine innings was down from 2.9 to 2.2, a nice improvement, but not the type of gain that's likely to cut your ERA by two runs absent any other significant changes.
He had given up 1.1 home runs per nine innings, identical to his rate in 2008.
So, even though batters were putting roughly the same number of balls in play and hitting the same number of home runs, Washburn's hits allowed and ERA were way down.
There was really nothing to explain that improvement. He didn't suddenly develop pinpoint control or come up with a strikeout pitch. Good luck might be an overly simplistic way of explaining Washburn's low ERA. A hot streak that was bound to end might be a better characterization.
If you want to find a pitcher who legitimately improved, take a look at teammates Jackson and Verlander.
Jackson, 25, is still young enough to be on the rise. And in addition to a significant drop in ERA, he's seen his strikeout rate jump from 5.3 to 6.9, his walk rate drop from 3.8 to 3.0 and his strikeouts/walk rate improve dramatically from 1.4 to 2.3.
Verlander, 26, has decreased his walk rate from 3.9 to 2.5 and improved his strikeout rate from 7.3 to 10.2.
Those are real improvements.
Washburn's gains were a mirage.
I'm not saying the Tigers shouldn't have made the trade. In Luke French, they gave up relatively little.
I am saying the expectations were too high.
His strikeout rate was 5.3 per nine innings, a low rate that wasn't much different than his rate of 5.1 the year before.
His walk rate per nine innings was down from 2.9 to 2.2, a nice improvement, but not the type of gain that's likely to cut your ERA by two runs absent any other significant changes.
He had given up 1.1 home runs per nine innings, identical to his rate in 2008.
So, even though batters were putting roughly the same number of balls in play and hitting the same number of home runs, Washburn's hits allowed and ERA were way down.
There was really nothing to explain that improvement. He didn't suddenly develop pinpoint control or come up with a strikeout pitch. Good luck might be an overly simplistic way of explaining Washburn's low ERA. A hot streak that was bound to end might be a better characterization.
If you want to find a pitcher who legitimately improved, take a look at teammates Jackson and Verlander.
Jackson, 25, is still young enough to be on the rise. And in addition to a significant drop in ERA, he's seen his strikeout rate jump from 5.3 to 6.9, his walk rate drop from 3.8 to 3.0 and his strikeouts/walk rate improve dramatically from 1.4 to 2.3.
Verlander, 26, has decreased his walk rate from 3.9 to 2.5 and improved his strikeout rate from 7.3 to 10.2.
Those are real improvements.
Washburn's gains were a mirage.
I'm not saying the Tigers shouldn't have made the trade. In Luke French, they gave up relatively little.
I am saying the expectations were too high.
