Some Detroit Tigers just weren't themselves in one-game playoff against Minnesota Twins

Some early thoughts on the Detroit Tigers' extra-inning loss tonight:

• Some key Tigers just didn't seem to be themselves.

Placido Polanco struck out twice, including once with a key run on third base. He's usually the team's best hitter in that type of situation. He also couldn't field a possible double-play ball that ended up being one of many big RBI hits for the Minnesota Twins in extra innings.

Curtis Granderson getting doubled off first base on a line drive was uncharacteristic for such a smart baserunner. Reminded me of Darrell Evans getting tagged out at third base during the 1987 American League Championships, also against the Twins.

• In this case, I really hate to say I told you so. Here's how I predicted the Tigers might lose in a blog entry earlier this week: Based on some of those recent performances, I can see the Tigers taking a lead into the late innings only to see the game lost in a Twins rally consisting of bloopers, high-hoppers off the turf and maybe a ball lost in the roof for good measure.

I'm not entirely sure whether Ryan Raburn lost that fly ball in the roof and the aforementioned grounder that got by Polanco was a turf hit but not a high-hopper, but that's pretty close.

• A game like this is bound to create lots of opportunities for second-guessing the manager.

I question how long Leyland stuck with Zach Miner, who's at best the team's fourth-best relief pitcher. I thought he should have gone to Brandon Lyon sooner rather than bringing him in after Miner had already blown the lead. Also, I would have pinch hit Alex Avila for Gerald Laird with the bases loaded in the 12th.

Some are complaining about Leyland sticking with Feranando Rodney for so long, but I don't have a problem with it given the alternatives: Eddie Bonine and Nate Robertson. Rodney really pitched fairly well. He was victimized by the Raburn misplay and some seeing-eye hits. The game-winner was a well-placed, weak ground ball.

One-game playoff was inevitable with Jim Leyland's decisions in final week of Detroit Tigers' season

Some thoughts on more than a week of playoff-atmosphere baseball:

• It's hard to be positive about the Detroit Tigers' one-game playoff against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Detroit's recent history in the Metrodome is downright frightening.

Based on some of those recent performances, I can see the Tigers taking a lead into the late innings only to see the game lost in a Twins rally consisting of bloopers, high-hoppers off the turf and maybe a ball lost in the roof for good measure. Remember this year's Don Kelly fiasco? Or the game in 2006 in which Jeremy Bonderman had no-hit stuff and imploded in the late innings to lose the game?

• Justin Verlander was great on Sunday, but with the good came a repeat of a troubling pattern. The Tiger ace looked untouchable, but suddenly fell victim to a big inning and had to be removed.

As good as he is, you never quite know with Verlander. This was at least the fourth time this year that he has had no-hit stuff, but suffered through a three-, four- or five-run inning. It seems like a big inning can come when you least expect it when Verlander is on the mound.

• Ryan Raburn has been the Tigers' unsung hero this year. Where would they be without him? Today's two homers in a must-win game is his latest clutch performance. Remember his walk-off home run earlier in the year?

Raburn has been just what the Tigers' struggling offense has needed. Before I question Jim Leyland in my next bullet point, I'll praise him for doing a great job of utilizing Raburn. Early on, Raburn was struggling to hit .100. Leyland stuck with him, and was rewarded with a powerful right-handed bat. Raburn has been especially valuable with Curtis Granderson's struggles against left-handed pitching and the lack of power from other corner outfielders such as Magglio Ordonez, Clete Thomas and Josh Anderson.

• If the Tigers don't win on Tuesday, Leyland will deservedly get much of the blame. The lack of urgency he's shown in his decision making this week has been striking, especially when compared to the moves of Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire.

The decision to start Alfredo Figaro in Saturday's crucial game was a head-scratcher. Figaro is on the Tiger roster as an extra September call up, which means he's not even one of the team's best 11 or 12 pitchers. Predictably, he was yanked early and suffered the loss.

Monday's rain out set up a difficult situation for the manager.

His choices: 1) Pitch Verlander on only three days' rest and then start Rick Porcello on his normal four days' rest in Game No. 162. 2) Pitch someone like Figaro, Zach Miner or Armando Galarraga. 3) Do something creative, like start reliever Ryan Perry and have him go a couple of innings, then replace him with Miner for three innings, Bobby Seay for a couple of batters, Brandon Lyon for an inning or two and Fernando Rodney for an inning or so.

Leyland chose No. 1, probably the worst of the three options.

Pitching your ace on three days' rest isn't the no-brainer that some might think. In recent history, pitchers making postseason starts on three days' rest have posted underwhelming numbers. But in those situations, a manager is usually choosing between starting his ace or starting his No. 4 starter. Leyland was choosing between his ace or his No. 6 or No. 7 starter.

Meanwhile, Gardenhire, who should be the American League Manager of the Year, started Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano both on three days' rest rather than pitching rookies. Of course, the Twins won both games.

We've seen this type of cautious managing from Leyland in the past. Earlier this week, he rested Placido Polanco against the Twins.

In 2006, Leyland started resting his players when the Tigers clinched a playoff spot, allowing the Twins to catch the Tigers in the last week. Then he suddenly veered in a different direction on the last day of the season, using seemingly the entire pitching staff in a desperate-but-failed attempt to win the division.

And in the World Series that year, Leyland started Verlander in Game 1 instead of Kenny Rogers, who had an ERA of 0.00 and had plenty of time off because the Tigers had a week in between their pennant-clinching victory and the start of the series.

The Tigers finished the second-half only one game above .500. During Leyland's tenure, second-half collapses have been the norm, occurring in 2006 and again in 2007 and 2009.

Minnesota Twins beat ace; Detroit Tigers lose to journeyman

The Minnesota Twins needed to score five runs in a game started by likely Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. They did.

The Detroit Tigers could barely even score one run in a game started by Freddy Garcia, who has struggled to find a major league job after arm problems.

That sums up the day.

Edwin Jackson's performance tonight could provide glimpse of what to expect from Tigers in playoffs

Tonight's game against the Chicago White Sox is big for the Detroit Tigers in more than one way.

Of course, it could help determine whether the Tigers win the American League Central.

But it also could be a harbinger of what to expect if the Tigers do make the playoffs. (As of today, Baseball Prospectus says the Tigers have a 92 percent chance of making the postseason.)

It's generally acknowledged that the Tigers (if they make it into the playoffs) won't be one of the strongest teams in the postseason.

But many analysts have offered a theory that provides hope to Tiger fans: If the Tigers get in, they could be tough to beat because power pitching is a key in the postseason and the Tigers have power pitching. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello could shut down any opposing offense -- or so the theory goes.

That's very true when in comes to Verlander and it's a bit of a reach when it comes to the 20-year-old Porcello, although the youngster should match up OK with other No. 3 starters.

As far as Jackson goes, it depends on which Edwin Jackson shows up for the postseason. Is it the first-half Edwin Jackson, who had the second-best ERA in the league earlier in the season? Or is it the Edwin Jackson who has frequently struggled in recent weeks?

Jackson pitches tonight. And he pitches against Jake Peavy of the Chicago White Sox. Peavy, a former Cy Young winner, is exactly the type of pitcher the Tigers can expect to face in the playoffs.

If Jackson can't outduel Peavy tonight, what will it say about his chances of winning postseason games against other stud pitchers who can hold the Tigers' mediocre offense in check?

We should have a better idea after tonight whether the Tigers have the starting pitching to make a run for the World Series.

Batting third in the biggest Detroit Tigers' game of the year: Clete Thomas?

In many ways, Jim Leyland is a very good manager.

But his handling of the most important spot in the Detroit Tigers' batting order this year has been puzzling, to say the least.

Most people in baseball consider the No. 3 hitter to be the best hitter on the team. If that's the case, many days Jim Leyland thinks Detroit's best hitter is Clete Thomas.

Thomas has often batted third since it became clear that Magglio Ordonez, the No. 3 hitter at the beginning of the season, isn't the player he once was.

Going into today's doubleheader, Thomas had a .243 batting average. But that doesn't even begin to explain what a poor choice he is as the No. 3 hitter.

In his best minor-league season, Thomas hit .280 with 8 homers in AA ball.

Last year he hit .247 in nearly 300 at bats in AAA.

He doesn't hit for average. He doesn't hit for power. He strikes out a lot.

Thomas is a borderline major league player. He was never a highly regarded prospect. Batting him third for a team fighting to make the playoffs is a strategy that defies any reasonable explanation.

I've heard broadcasters say that Leyland likes to bat Thomas third because he adds some speed to the top of the order. He does, but at what expense?

At one point this season, Thomas was demoted to the minor leagues. He went from the No. 3 hitter in Detroit to the minor leagues.

Why isn't Miguel Cabrera batting third? He's by far the best offensive player on the team. Wouldn't it behoove the Tigers to have him batting in the first inning every game? Don't you want to get Cabrera as many plate appearances as you can, and have him batting behind the best hitters on the team rather than Clete Thomas.

The only reason I can see for not batting Cabrera third is that he struggled during a brief cameo in that role earlier this season. So does that mean he's not capable of batting third? Probably not. It could have easily been random luck that Cabrera happened to slump when he was moved to a new spot in the batting order.

Even if you were to conclude that Cabrera should bat fourth, why not bat Carlos Guillen third? He's an accomplished major league hitter. So is Aubrey Huff. His batting average isn't good this year, but neither is Clete Thomas'.

RIP, Tiger Stadium

Tiger Stadium, a place that gives me many fond memories, soon will be no more.

I felt a little wistful looking at this Detroit Free Press slide show, but the stadium had to go.

It would have been nice to see it redeveloped, but in today's economy, that wasn't going to happen.

Lost in roof complaints are questions about defense in Detroit Tigers outfield

Blame today's loss on the Metrodome roof if it makes you feel better.

I'm still not sure why anyone would paint a stadium's roof the same color as the baseball.

But the Detroit Tigers didn't lose today's game because of the quirks of the stadium that has left many fielders throwing their arms up to signal they've lost the ball.

They lost it because they have only two outfielders who can be trusted to play defense in the late innings of a close game.

Don Kelly, who lost one ball and misplayed another in the decisive eighth inning, was a defensive replacement for Carlos Guillen.

Kelly, a AAA-player who is on the team only because of September roster expansion, shouldn't have been put in the position to help lose the game. There are no indoor stadiums with white roofs in the minor leagues, where the 29-year-old Kelly has played most of his career.

Maybe Jim Leyland made a mistake by entrusting Kelly with late-inning defense in a crucial game.

But what other choices do the Tigers have? Clete Thomas? He had to enter the game in right field as a defensive replacement for Magglio Ordonez. Ryan Raburn? He's suffered his own misadventures this season as a defensive replacement.

With Guillen, Ordonez and Marcus Thames getting the bulk of the playing time at the corner outfield positions, defensive range is a big problem. Guillen isn't really an outfielder and he's aging and slow. Ordonez is aging and slow. Thames never really was very good on defense.

That left Leyland trying to figure out how to replace two poor outfielders in the late innings with a bench that had only one quality major-league outfielder.

It wouldn't be such a big problem if Guillen and Ordonez were still 100-RBI threats. But now that they're both hitting like middle-infielders, their defense is even more troubling.

And it could cost the Tigers, whose lead over the Minnesota Twins dropped to two games, a spot in the playoffs.

Appeal of Fernando Rodney suspension may be more damaging to Detroit Tigers than actual time off

Now that Major League Baseball has reduced Fernando Rodney's suspension to two games, can the Tigers try to have the suspension made retroactive to the two games he helped lose last week?

I'm being facetious.

But it turns out Rodney (and the Tigers) would have been better off had he not appealed his three-day suspension.

Without an appeal, he would have served the punishment Tuesday through Thursday. During the three games, Rodney was charged with a loss in one game. In another, he gave up three earned runs that turned out to be important when the Tigers' ninth-inning comeback bid fell short.

In all, he gave up five earned runs in the three games after his suspension for throwing a ball toward the stands after a rough outing.

Was sportswriter right to write Major League Baseball about Fernando Rodney incident?

A report today from The Detroit News that a letter from a sportswriter might have caused Fernando Rodney to be suspended raises some interesting questions.

To sum it up: Detroit Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski said he doesn't think Rodney would have been suspended if the chairman of the Tampa Bay chapter of the Baseball Writers Association hadn't written the letter. The correspondence raised concerns about Rodney throwing a baseball toward the grandstands after Friday's game (See video). The ball landed in the press box at Tropicana Field, but no one was injured.

The letter was from Marc Topkin, who also covers the Rays for the St. Petersburg Times.

Was Topkin justified in filing a complaint with MLB?

I'm not going to say he was wrong, but I will say that it's not something I would have done had I been in Topkin's shoes.

Maybe the Baseball Writers Association could have filed a complaint with the Tigers, as Pat Caputo suggested today on Detroit radio station WXYT-FM 97.1.

In my 16 years as a reporter, I always tried to avoid becoming part of a story. Now Topkin is part of a story about a player being suspended for three games during a pennant race, pending a decision on Rodney's appeal.

I'm not saying that it's always wrong for a reporter to get involved in this type of situation. If a player had assaulted a reporter, or intentionally thrown a ball at a reporter, a complaint to the league would have been more than appropriate.

But my philosophy regarding confrontations or incidents involving sources or readers was to pick my battles carefully. I've been yelled at, personally attacked and been the subject of veiled threats. It goes with the job. I didn't make a big deal about it.

One time a colleague made some type of complaint about a police officer putting his hands on the reporter at the scene of breaking news. I don't remember the specifics, but it seemed like a battle not worth fighting. The reporter wasn't injured. The officer's action might or might not have been appropriate, but let it go.

If a source struck me, pushed me or made a specific verbal threat, I likely would have filed some type of complaint. For anything short of that, it's best to just consider it a hazard of the occupation and move on.

One other thing troubles me about the complaint against Rodney. Topkin wrote a story about the suspension yesterday that makes no mention of his letter. In the interest of full disclosure, it seems that the newspaper should have mentioned Topkin's involvement in the situation. Perhaps another reporter should have written the story.

Fernando Rodney suspension may be harsh; treatment by Detroit Tigers fans definitely is

Apparently many Detroit Tigers fans are happy that closer Fernando Rodney was suspended for three days for throwing a baseball toward the seats following a game last week. (See the video at mlb.com)

Read comments on Detroit newspaper Web sites and you'll see fans saying they're glad Rodney will be replaced by Brandon Lyon while serving a suspension.

They might want to think again.

Rodney's save percentage -- he's 32-for-33 in save opportunities -- is second in the American League among pitchers with at least 10 saves. Only Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees has a better percentage, with 39 saves in 40 chances.

Bigger-name closers have more blown saves than Rodney. Joe Nathan of the Minnesota Twins has five blown ,as does AL-save leader Brian Fuentes of Los Angeles Angels. Jonathan Papelbon of the Boston Red Sox has four blown saves.

Sure, Rodney often struggles to close out games, giving up a frustrating amount of walks. But he almost always gets the job done. He has allowed many of his baserunners and runs in non-save situations.

He's been a valuable member of the Tigers pitching staff. The bullpen would have been in deep trouble earlier in the season without him because Lyon and others were struggling.

There's another reason why it's foolish to say the Tigers are better off without Rodney. Even if you agree that Lyon is a better closer than Rodney, who's going to replace Lyon as the No. 1 set-up man while Lyon is pitching the ninth inning? Losing one key member of the bullpen has a ripple effect.

It's fashionable to criticize closers. They often get little praise when they do well, but when they blow a game (or even come close to blowing a game), they're the target of criticism. Todd Jones also was much-maligned by Tiger fans. So was Mike Henneman.

As for the suspension (which Rodney has appealed): At first blush, it seems a bit excessive, but it's not out of line with previous discipline for similar offenses.

Players frequently toss balls into the stands after the final out of an inning, although it's usually a soft lob to a fan nearby rather than the long throw that Rodney made that ended up in the press box.

Rodney says there was no "malice" intended and that he was simply celebrating a victory. That claim seems a bit dubious given that the victory came after one of Rodney's worst outings of the year. It seems that he was letting some anger (or stress) out rather than happily throwing the ball to some fans.

There is precedence. Former Cincinnati Reds pitcher Rob Dibble was suspended four games for throwing a ball into the stands after a rough outing that also resulted in victory for his team. In that case, a fan was actually injured.

And a story on mlb.com notes that Chad Qualls, then pitching for the Houston Astros, was suspended for three games after heaving a ball into the stands after blowing a game in 2007.

Detroit Tigers broadcasting legend Ernie Harwell is Michigan's most beloved figure

I was 19 years old and trying to figure out how to be a journalist when I interviewed Ernie Harwell.

My friend Todd introduced me to the broadcasting legend. Todd struck up a conversation with Ernie at a Detroit Tigers winter media tour stop by mentioning that Todd and his mom had met Ernie previously at the ballpark.

I got the idea that Ernie really did remember Todd and his mom, but maybe he was just being nice.

That's the kind of guy that Ernie is. By now you've probably heard that Ernie Harwell has been diagnosed with incurable cancer.

There is no more beloved figure in Michigan than Ernie Harwell. And it's not even close. Try to come up with the second-most-beloved person in Michigan.

Ernie is one of the most genuinely kind people you'll ever encounter.

If you ask a newspaper reporter about Ernie Harwell, chances are he or she has interviewed the Hall-of-Famer at some point. Often it was when the reporter worked at a small newspaper that might seem insignificant to someone who has been interviewed by most of the nation's major media outlets.

But Ernie doesn't care. He's nice to everyone.

We should all try to be a little bit more like Ernie Harwell.

Kansas City Royal Zack Greinke should be ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander in Cy Young race

Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander is one of six American League pitchers who still have a legitimate shot at the Cy Young Award with less than a month left in the season.

I would pick Kansas City's Zack Greinke and Seattle's Felix Hernandez ahead of Verlander based on their performances so far.

It's anyone's guess who would actually win the award if the vote was today. Baseball writers who pick the Cy Young winners are typically enamored with victories. New York's CC Sabathia leads the league in victories with 16, but lags behind Greinke, Hernandez and Verlander in other categories.

Greinke's league-best 2.32 ERA and league-leading 6 complete games and 3 shutouts makes him the AL's best pitcher in my eyes. He also trails only Verlander in strikeouts. Greinke also will be helped by a hot start that resulted in a Sports Illustrated cover story that declared him baseball's best pitcher.

Greinke may have only 13 wins, good for just sixth in the league, but he pitches for a team with a poor offense. Cy Young voters too often hold that against pitchers.

While Sabathia has three more wins than Greinke, his ERA is more than a run higher. And Sabathia pitches for the best team in the league, so he doesn't have to shut down his opponents as Greinke does to get victories.

Verlander's main problem is a relatively high ERA of 3.38, also more than a run higher than Greinke's.

Hernandez is second in ERA and tied for third in wins.

Toronto's Roy Halladay and Boston's Josh Beckett also have an outside shot at the award for the league's best pitcher.

Introduction: From Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, to the dawn of fantasy baseball, to the Jim Leyland era

I was 9 years old. Alan Trammell was 19. Lou Whitaker was 20.

It was 1977.

One night, I sat down with my dad to watch the Detroit Tigers. George Kell and Al Kaline were calling the game. I became a Tiger fan.

The 1977 Tigers were in the midst of their fourth-straight losing season after nearly a decade of success that included a World Championship in 1968, the year I was born. The star players of 1968 were gone. I had missed out on the phenomenon that was Mark "The Bird" Fidrych the year before.

It wasn't the best time to be a Tiger fan.

But I didn't know any better.

The Tigers won that night. I remember my dad, ever the cynic, saying something about hoping that I wasn't misled into thinking this was really a good team I was following.

But the team that would become the 1984 World Champions was taking shape.

Whitaker and Trammell made cameos in the big leagues that year. Jack Morris and Lance Parrish also debuted.

By 1978, I was hooked. I followed the Tigers every day on TV or the radio, living and dying on the outcome of their games. Most of my schoolmates preferred football. I liked baseball.

Soon, things would turn around for the Tigers. Sparky Anderson was hired. Trammell, Whitaker, Parrish and Morris became the backbone of a contending team.

In 1984, the Tigers quickly became a national story with their 35-5 start. A team that had been largely ignored by the national media during my previous seven years of fandom was everywhere. I soaked it in, eagerly collecting publications such as Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News that featured my team on the cover.

By then, I was 16. My French teacher, Sister Barb, was also a Tiger fan. We happily discovered that we could steer the classroom discussion away from conjugating verbs by mentioning her beloved Tigers. "How about those Tigres?"we'd ask, resulting in a five-minute discussion about the previous night's game.

I couldn't score playoff or World Series tickets, but I was glued to my television during the postseason. I watched one game at the reception for an unfortunately timed wedding. I caught the World-Series-clinching game from my living room, watching Kirk Gibson's home run put the game out of reach.

In a way, 1984 was the end of my childhood. In the coming years, the outcome of Tiger games would become much less important. Part of it was the expectation. Now that the Tigers had won the World Series, things were different. It's always more fun to root for the underdog.

Part of it was me. I was older now. Who won or lost a baseball game didn't seem as important as it had been.

I still loved baseball. But I found other ways to enjoy the game.

In 1988, I discovered fantasy league baseball. A friend convinced me to join a league. It quickly became an obsession.

In the days before the Internet, when a key free agent became available, an owner had to drive to the baseball card shop that hosted our league to put in a claim. More than once, I drove across town at odd hours of the night to improve my team.

Some would say that fantasy sports corrupts a fan's interest in the game. I was rooting for "my players" when they went against the Tigers.

But for me, it kept my love of the game alive during lean times for the Tigers. Gibson and Morris left the Tigers for more money elsewhere, I reasoned. So why should I be blindly loyal to the same team?

I still watched the Tigers. But I shrugged off losses that would have been devastating in my youth.

In 1996, I lost a little bit more of my youth. Trammell, my favorite player as a child, retired after 20 seasons with the Tigers. A player I had followed since that summer of 1977 was now gone.

Baseball would make me feel old many more times. When Tiger Stadium closed. When Kirk Gibson became the team's color analyst. (Al Kaline seemed really old when I was a kid. Now Gibson was the new Kaline!) When I realized that no one who had played in the big leagues in 1977 was still an active player. When I became older than most of the players on the Tigers. I think the final insult will be when I'm older than any active major-leaguer. (Stay healthy, Tim Wakefield and Jamie Moyer.)

I never quit following the Tigers. But sometime in about 2003 or 2004, I started following them a bit more like I did as a child. It had to do with a girl.

I started dating Rene in 2003. We began watching the Tigers together. At first, I enjoyed being a non-fan. I openly rooted for my fantasy players when they went against the Tigers. I expressed little or no emotion when the home team lost.

Rene was different. She grew fond of the players on the team, just as I had in 1977. The team was a lot like the 1977 team. It wasn't very good, but was accumulating players who would send the Tigers back to the World Series in 2006.

Rene cheered for Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge. She was thrilled when Pudge Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Being a cynic, I explained that Pudge was only doing it for money. Why else would he sign with the worst team in baseball?

Gradually, I found myself rooting for the Tigers more. And in 2006, the team returned to prominence for the first time since I was in college. Rene (now my wife) and I went to 20 games that year, including Spring Training, the regular season and the postseason. When Kenny Roger shut down the Yankees in the playoffs, Rene and I (with an unborn boy in utero that would be named Jack) waved our towels from the upper deck. Fantasy baseball was the last thing on my mind.

Now, Rene and I take Jack, 2, to the Tiger games. I'm still playing fantasy baseball, too. Being a die-hard fan of "my team" and the Tigers at the same time is the best of both worlds.

I've been a professional writer for 18 years now. But I've never really written about baseball. After all, there are only so many jobs covering major league teams.

So I guess this blog will be my way of writing about the game I love.

Much of it will be related to the Tigers. I might write about fantasy baseball, but I don't plan to go into diatribes about how some bum that I drafted sucks and is "killing my team."

I may be a fan, but as a journalist I'm also an objective analyst. I like Bill James, Baseball Prospectus and "Moneyball." So I'll try to provide some analysis along those lines.

And maybe I'll look back to 1977 from time to time.

Detroit Tigers fans shouldn't be surprised by Jarrod Washburn's struggles

When the Detroit Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn, some said the deal gave the Tigers three of the best starting pitchers in the American League.

After all, they reasoned, Washburn was one of the league leaders in ERA, along with Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander.

They should have known better.

And I'm not just saying that because Washburn was pounded in today's Tigers loss.

A look at the numbers at the time of the trade showed that Washburn was unlikely to maintain his outstanding pitching.

Washburn had an ERA of 2.64 when the Tigers acquired him. He was a former 18-game winner, the theory went, and had regained his magic after ERAs of 4.69, 4.32 and 4.67 the previous three years.

Makes sense, right?

Until you look at the numbers.

First of all, Washburn was just shy of his 35th birthday. Not many pitchers suddenly find magic in their mid-30s.

Most importantly, compare some of Washburn's underlying numbers before the trade to those from his recent seasons. Other than his ERA and hits allowed, the other numbers were not much better than in recent years.

His strikeout rate was 5.3 per nine innings, a low rate that wasn't much different than his rate of 5.1 the year before.

His walk rate per nine innings was down from 2.9 to 2.2, a nice improvement, but not the type of gain that's likely to cut your ERA by two runs absent any other significant changes.

He had given up 1.1 home runs per nine innings, identical to his rate in 2008.

So, even though batters were putting roughly the same number of balls in play and hitting the same number of home runs, Washburn's hits allowed and ERA were way down.

There was really nothing to explain that improvement. He didn't suddenly develop pinpoint control or come up with a strikeout pitch. Good luck might be an overly simplistic way of explaining Washburn's low ERA. A hot streak that was bound to end might be a better characterization.

If you want to find a pitcher who legitimately improved, take a look at teammates Jackson and Verlander.

Jackson, 25, is still young enough to be on the rise. And in addition to a significant drop in ERA, he's seen his strikeout rate jump from 5.3 to 6.9, his walk rate drop from 3.8 to 3.0 and his strikeouts/walk rate improve dramatically from 1.4 to 2.3.

Verlander, 26, has decreased his walk rate from 3.9 to 2.5 and improved his strikeout rate from 7.3 to 10.2.

Those are real improvements.

Washburn's gains were a mirage.

I'm not saying the Tigers shouldn't have made the trade. In Luke French, they gave up relatively little.

I am saying the expectations were too high.