Sunday, October 4, 2009

One-game playoff was inevitable with Jim Leyland's decisions in final week of Detroit Tigers' season

Some thoughts on more than a week of playoff-atmosphere baseball:

Based on some of those recent performances, I can see the Tigers taking a lead into the late innings only to see the game lost in a Twins rally consisting of bloopers, high-hoppers off the turf and maybe a ball lost in the roof for good measure. Remember this year's Don Kelly fiasco? Or the game in 2006 in which Jeremy Bonderman had no-hit stuff and imploded in the late innings to lose the game?

  • Justin Verlander was great on Sunday, but with the good came a repeat of a troubling pattern. The Tiger ace looked untouchable, but suddenly fell victim to a big inning and had to be removed.

As good as he is, you never quite know with Verlander. This was at least the fourth time this year that he has had no-hit stuff, but suffered through a three-, four- or five-run inning. It seems like a big inning can come when you least expect it when Verlander is on the mound.

  • Ryan Raburn has been the Tigers' unsung hero this year. Where would they be without him? Today's two homers in a must-win game is his latest clutch performance. Remember his walk-off home run earlier in the year?

Raburn has been just what the Tigers' struggling offense has needed. Before I question Jim Leyland in my next bullet point, I'll praise him for doing a great job of utilizing Raburn. Early on, Raburn was struggling to hit .100. Leyland stuck with him, and was rewarded with a powerful right-handed bat. Raburn has been especially valuable with Curtis Granderson's struggles against left-handed pitching and the lack of power from other corner outfielders such as Magglio Ordonez, Clete Thomas and Josh Anderson.

  • If the Tigers don't win on Tuesday, Leyland will deservedly get much of the blame. The lack of urgency he's shown in his decision making this week has been striking, especially when compared to the moves of Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire.

The decision to start Alfredo Figaro in Saturday's crucial game was a head-scratcher. Figaro is on the Tiger roster as an extra September call up, which means he's not even one of the team's best 11 or 12 pitchers. Predictably, he was yanked early and suffered the loss.

Monday's rain out set up a difficult situation for the manager.

His choices: 1) Pitch Verlander on only three days' rest and then start Rick Porcello on his normal four days' rest in Game No. 162. 2) Pitch someone like Figaro, Zach Miner or Armando Galarraga. 3) Do something creative, like start reliever Ryan Perry and have him go a couple of innings, then replace him with Miner for three innings, Bobby Seay for a couple of batters, Brandon Lyon for an inning or two and Fernando Rodney for an inning or so.

Leyland chose No. 1, probably the worst of the three options.

Pitching your ace on three days' rest isn't the no-brainer that some might think. In recent history, pitchers making postseason starts on three days' rest have posted underwhelming numbers. But in those situations, a manager is usually choosing between starting his ace or starting his No. 4 starter. Leyland was choosing between his ace or his No. 6 or No. 7 starter.

Meanwhile, Gardenhire, who should be the American League Manager of the Year, started Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano both on three days' rest rather than pitching rookies. Of course, the Twins won both games.

We've seen this type of cautious managing from Leyland in the past. Earlier this week, he rested Placido Polanco against the Twins.

In 2006, Leyland started resting his players when the Tigers clinched a playoff spot, allowing the Twins to catch the Tigers in the last week. Then he suddenly veered in a different direction on the last day of the season, using seemingly the entire pitching staff in a desperate-but-failed attempt to win the division.

And in the World Series that year, Leyland started Verlander in Game 1 instead of Kenny Rogers, who had an ERA of 0.00 and had plenty of time off because the Tigers had a week in between their pennant-clinching victory and the start of the series.

The Tigers finished the second-half only one game above .500. During Leyland's tenure, second-half collapses have been the norm, occurring in 2006 and again in 2007 and 2009.

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